With the Covid-19 crisis, the Rexecode Institute expects a hole of 68 billion
euros in 2020 against 58 billion last year. Exports could plunge by nearly 100
billion euros, notably because of the slowdown in aeronautics.
If there is one area that is being challenged, at least in the short term,
by the Covid-19 crisis, it is that of exports. By crippling much of the planet's
economy, the coronavirus has effectively attacked globalization. But above all,
it affected certain sectors in which France excels, such as aeronautics.
Aviation exports amounted to 64 billion euros last year and the sector's trade
surplus reached 30 billion euros in 2019, by far the largest. France's foreign
trade is therefore being attacked head-on when it has just started to climb back
up.
While the foreign trade deficit reached 58 billion euros last
year, the Rexecode Institute expects a hole of 68 billion euros in 2020. And
again, the price of oil has fallen since the start of the pandemic. But exports
are expected to fall by more than 90 billion euros, according to its experts.
Euler Hermes economists even predict a fall of 100 billion. In aeronautics
alone, exports are expected to fall by 10 billion euros.
It must be said that, according to INSEE,
the aeronautical factories in France were only running 73% of their production
capacities at the end of August, after having been almost at a standstill
during confinement and that air transport had to hard to take off again. The
chemicals and food industry will also be severely affected. "Very focused on
the European Union, the French exporting apparatus will suffer from the
European recession expected this year", explain the economists of Euler Hermes
in a study. Best of all, the euro has appreciated on average 5% against other
currencies in one year. Global imports, they will decline less, of the order
of 80 billion this year, predicts Rexecode.
One more point of GDP pushes up imports by 3.1%
“Among the large developed economies, it is in France that GDP growth drives
the largest increase in imports, along with Italy. But Italy has an export
capacity greater than that of France, "said Selin Ozyurt, economist at Euler
Hermes. According to his calculations, one point of growth in French GDP leads
on average to an increase in imports of 3.1 points. In the case of Germany,
one point of growth pushes up imports by 2.1%.
For this expert,
“this crisis has reinforced France's dependence on imports. We have seen that,
despite the shutdown of the economy during the lockdown, the country still had
to import products ". In the second quarter, exports plunged 29% with the
shutdown of factories while, despite the drop in consumption, imports fell
only 21%. The country's dependence on the purchase of Chinese masks also
weighed heavily.
85% of exporting companies were selling abroad this summer
However, since the end of confinement, the recovery is real. According to the
latest Business France barometer, which surveyed more than 8,000 exporting
companies, 85% of them had an export activity in July-August while they were
only 69% in this case in June. Moreover, France's exports to the euro zone and
the United States returned this summer to 85% of their level in the fourth
quarter of 2019, against only 60% in April.
The recovery "nevertheless comes
up against three obstacles to go further: the weakness of Chinese domestic
demand, global trade tensions and Brexit", according to Julien Manceaux,
economist at ING bank. Not to mention the return of health uncertainties and
closures in some countries.
Among the companies surveyed by
Business France, 45% of those who continue to export cite the lack of
visibility as their main difficulty. While the number of exporting companies
started to pick up last year, it is very likely to decline significantly this
year. However, this is an indication of the vitality of the French productive
fabric.
