Coronavirus: United Kingdom, facing worst recession on record, sees GDP drop 20.4% in Q2

The UK has seen its economy, hit by the coronavirus crisis, suffer a "record" contraction of 20.4% in the second quarter, and is officially facing its worst recession on record, agency figures show National Statistics (ONS), published Wednesday 12 August. 
Economists consider that a country enters a technical recession when it accumulates two consecutive quarters of contraction in its economy. According to the ONS, most of the contraction, which began to be felt in March, occurred in April, an entire month of containment and almost total cessation of activity in the country, which saw production collapsed by 20%.

With a very early recovery in construction sites and manufacturing activity, gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded in May by 2.4% (revised figure), followed by an acceleration in June (+8.7 %) thanks in particular to the reopening of all shops. This is the biggest contraction in the UK economy since the ONS began these quarterly statistics in 1955, he said…

The rebound in oil demand will drop a barrel to $ 66 in 2021 and $ 83 in 2023 (Energy Aspects)

The drop in oil demand has not reached dreaded levels despite the sharp contraction in the world economy, which according to Energy Aspects is proof that the world depends and will still depend a lot on oil. For the firm, demand will increase very quickly and prices will rise.

The rebound in oil demand will drop a barrel to $ 66 in 2021 and $ 83 in 2023 (Energy Aspects)

According to Energy Aspects, a British energy consultancy, a rebound in global demand for oil is underway and will exceed producers' ability to restore supply. This will drop the average Brent price from around $ 43 a barrel this year to $ 66 next year and $ 83 in 2023.

The coronavirus and the wave of confinements that followed, as well as the decline in industrial activity, led to forecasts of a drop of 30 to 40% compared to the global demand for oil before the pandemic, which was around 100 million barrels a day.

In the midst of the crisis, the industry expected demand to drop to around 28 million barrels per day, but demand did not exceed 18 million barrels per day in April.




For Amrita Sen, co-founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, this illustrates the world's dependence on crude oil and suggests that this dependence will not decrease in the short term. She added that this is a sign of a rapid recovery in demand in the coming months, once the spread has been brought under control, to support the entire industry.

Monday, Deloitte published a study in which it goes in the same direction as Energy Aspects by predicting that the price of Brent will go from an average of $ 39 per barrel this year to $ 46.5 in 2021 and $ 64 in 2023 .