“Let's stop criticizing our banks!”

More than ten years after the subprime mortgage crisis, all the light has not been shed, and yet the idea of ​​the guilt of the banks has taken hold firmly in people's minds. They are even blamed for the double fault, since after playing with fire and triggering the crisis, they allegedly asked for help from the States. This unanimous condemnation, the result of incomplete analyzes, is a heavy component of the bank bashing that has raged since then and unfortunately works against our interests. We are indeed at a critical moment when Europe, faced with the domination of American finance and the dollar, must develop its own financial capacities. The development of a strong pan-European financial sector is therefore essential if we particularly want to foster the emergence of future European gafas. 
If it is vain to hope for the complete disappearance of this bank bashing and, one might say, of the bashing market whose roots plunge both in history and in ignor…

Europe could run out of oil in 2030, says Shift Project

Europe could run out of crude by the end of the decade, say experts on the Shift Project, if it does not make a sufficiently ambitious energy transition. Europe’s oil supply is under threat, warns the Shift Project. This group of experts, led by economist Mathieu Auzanneau, brings together former executives from Total and has obtained the latest data from Rystad, the Norwegian economic intelligence agency, on resources and reserves country by country. and field by field of the petroleum industry.

Europe could run out of oil in 2030, says Shift Project

Verdict: More than 50% of the EU’s supply is on the wane. It's "easy oil winter," said the report (see here). Russia, which supplies 30% of the European supply, will see its production fall by 9% in the next ten years. Even greater decline in supply from the Gulf of Guinea countries, -30% for Nigeria and Angola, -45% for Gabon and Congo-Brazzaville. Algeria’s supply should continue to fall, -13%.

Russia and Africa supply forecast to fall

Africa accounts for 10% of Europe’s oil supply. Apart from Saudi Arabia, whose production should remain solid, and Iraq, whose supply is promised for strong growth, the other suppliers of Europe have uncertain potential, whether Iran, Libya, Norway, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Brazil, Canada or the United States.

Especially since the Covid-19 crisis has caused investment to collapse, a new miracle in shales is very much in jeopardy. Extrapolating data from Rystad, The Shift Project predicts that by 2030 the supply of current suppliers in Europe will decrease from 1% to 8%.



Risk of abrupt withdrawal without an adapted climate policy

As the fall in consumption does not go as quickly on the Old Continent, there is a danger of sudden withdrawal of oil for Europe. "If the European Union does not succeed in implementing the appropriate climate policies", "it risks being overtaken by the broom wagon of Peak Oil!" Warns the Shift Project.

Aggravating factor, global demand will grow in emerging countries, particularly in Asia and to a lesser extent in Africa, while their production will decrease. An additional 11 million barrels will have to be found, the current consumption of the European Union, which will therefore be in competition with the rest of the world on its supplies.

Comments