European Central Bank confirms: economy will take two years to recover from crisis

The pandemic situation in the world is evolving in dispersed order: it seems to be slowing down in France but accelerating in other European countries ... and everyone is taking the measures they deem necessary. But a big question remains: how long will the economic crisis linked to the health crisis last? About two years, according to the ECB. Hope for a vaccine in 2021 In an interview that the chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), Philip Lane, gave to the newspaper Les Echos on November 22, 2020, we discover that it will be the vaccine, announced as available at the end of 2020-beginning of 2021 which will play an essential role in the recovery of the economy. For now, the ECB is watching closely "the circulation of the virus" and the health measures taken as a result, but especially the change in "consumer behavior". "It is certain that the two phenomena combined will lead to a decline in activity."

Why we should not (too much) cushion the effects of the carbon tax? | Europe

The French carbon tax must help change behavior in terms of energy consumption. Balancing this ecological taxation with that on labor could prove not only unproductive but devastating for both systems.
Why we should not (too much) cushion the effects of the carbon tax? | Europe

Little reminder. Carbon component of the internal consumption tax on energy products (TICPE), the climate energy contribution (CCE) must act on the country's energy transition on two levels as it increases according to the trajectory which has been raised end of 2017. From 7 euros per tonne of CO2 in 2014, it rose to 30.5 euros / t CO2 in 2017, 44.6 euros / tCO2 (i.e. 3 cents per liter of petrol) in 2018 and should reach 86 euros in 2022. It must generate 3.2 billion euros in additional tax revenue, of which 1.66 billion will be borne by households, or 0.1% of their income.

Admittedly, ecological taxation, which is often punitive, remains difficult to handle. The Ministry of Ecological Transition nevertheless considers

that a 10% increase in the cost of fossil fuels will reduce their consumption in the long term by 6%. One of the ways is through the CEC. On the one hand, it must encourage consumers to change their habits and, on the other hand, motivate companies to make investments that would not be profitable without this taxation. The idea is to act on the two largest sectors emitting greenhouse gases in France: construction and transport. The third major polluting sector in the world being the production of electricity - notably based on coal, but which in France is largely decarbonized thanks to nuclear and hydroelectricity - which remains the first of the renewable energies in the world, and in l 'Hexagon.

Behavior first

According to Ademe, the CEC must allow a reduction of 2.3 million tonnes of CO2 in the short term and 3.3 million tonnes of CO2 in the long term, - the 1 million tonnes being linked to heating savings in the residential and the reduction of nearly half of the fuel consumption in the transport of the private individuals, that is to say 310 million kilometers traveled in automobile in the short term. It could also remove 1 million tonnes of CO2 in the tertiary sector (including the transport of goods) and 0.5 million tonnes in industry and agriculture, which remains very little taxed. But it is mainly in the heating of buildings that the efforts would be most tangible. Note that more than 95% of emissions from industry are exempt, recalls Ademe.

But these are only projections. Ademe does not yet have any figures on the real impact of this ecological taxation. In the meantime, it has created an observatory of emerging mobility, which notably monitors the evolution of the car fleet and the adoption of bikes, carsharing, urban sliding, etc. "We observe a progressive questioning of the possession of the car mainly in urban centers and large metropolises, but also strong divides between rural areas and dense areas linked to large differences in offers of alternative journeys to the private car ", specifies Jérémie Almosni, head of the transport and mobility department at 'Ademe.

Fighting auto-solism

Admittedly, on the eve of the European elections, it is important not to let political extremes take advantage of the rise in fuel prices - linked to almost 70% that of oil prices - to pour their demagogic venom on these areas rural women who feel forgotten by Parisian political power. But a political problem requires a political response. The State has provided a shock absorber to the CEC on the cost of heating for the most precarious with the energy check.

For home-to-work transportation, in early 2018, the law made it compulsory for each company of more than 100 people to draw up a travel plan. The objective is to reduce self-solism as much as possible and to encourage less polluting alternative mobility. But the mobility law (LOM), which must recognize an allowance of up to 400 euros per year for workers choosing alternative mobility to the car or public transport (already paid 50% by companies), is not not yet voted. And we are still waiting for the multiannual energy program (PPE) which must set the country's energy roadmap by 2028, by setting objectives and therefore investment priorities… and therefore earmarking the 7 billion d euros of the budget reserved for the energy transition, which the CEC provides, but only in part.

A Bercy to take its share

In the absence of a credible building renovation plan and pending the mobility law, which must give an acceleration cost to the change in habits, the government has chosen to balance its action on labor income with the CEC and pact law. It may be counterproductive. Explaining to employees that what they earn on their payroll will offset the increase in the cost of gas and heating destroys the benefits of the two devices. The gain in purchasing power disappears. The lever to change habits and invest in the energy transition, too. Failure to reserve revenues from the climate energy contribution to energy transition programs is also a political error. If the French are to make collective efforts to fight global warming, the State, and especially Bercy, must do their part.