CEMAC zone: recession could reach 6% according to BEAC

All the indicators are certainly not red. But most of the economic indicators in the six countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) are already found the Monetary Policy Committee (CPM) of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) at the end of the second annual session on June 24, 2020 in Yaoundé.

Analyzing the situation in Central Africa, it emerges that in the short and medium terms, the CEMAC zone is affected by the health crisis and the fall in the prices of the main export products. "

"In the first half of 2020, the revival of productive activities was slowed down in the sub-region by the disruption of supply circuits for imported products as well as by the restrictive measures adopted by the various governments to contain the effects of the pandemic. Although it is premature for the moment to fully grasp the impact of COVID-19 on national economies, it is already anticipated during this first semester a drop in production as well as a det…

Coronavirus: 1.6 billion workers worldwide at risk of losing livelihoods

The economic consequences of confinement linked to the coronavirus pandemic are global and there should be a “huge impact on poverty”.  1.6 billion people worldwide, three-quarters of informal workers, are now facing "the immediate danger of their livelihoods being wiped out," warns the International Labor Organization (ILO), adding that almost - all work in units with less than 10 employees. Presenting a new ILO study on the economic consequences of containment linked to the coronavirus pandemic, the organisation's director general, Guy Ryder, told the media that it was to be expected to have "a huge impact in terms of of poverty ”.
Coronavirus: 1.6 billion workers worldwide at risk of losing livelihoods

While these people are among the most vulnerable in the labor market, "we must all think of the human suffering behind this figure," noted Guy Ryder, adding that these forecasts concern the second quarter. In the first month of the crisis alone, the income of informal workers fell by 60% worldwide. This translates into a fall of 81% in Africa and the Americas, 21.6% in Asia-Pacific and 70% in Europe and Central Asia. Without alternative sources of income, these workers and their families will no longer have a livelihood.

When employers and the self-employed are added up, some 436 million businesses in the most affected sectors worldwide are currently at high risk of serious disruption. More than half of them - some 232 million - are found in the wholesale and retail trade, currently one of the most affected sectors worldwide.

The situation is expected to worsen in the second quarter

"Millions of businesses around the world are struggling to keep their heads above water. They have no savings or no access to credit. Yet this is the true face of the working world. If we do not help them now, they will simply perish, "said Guy Ryder in a statement.

According to the report, the share of workers living in countries where closure of the workplace is recommended or required has fallen from 81% to 68% in the past two weeks, largely due to the lifting of closings in China.

ILO estimates that working hours worldwide fell in the first quarter by around 4.5% (equivalent to around 130 million full-time jobs, based on weekly hours) 48 hours) compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. In the second quarter, the situation should worsen further due to the extension and extension of the containment measures.

The greatest loss of working hours in the Americas

Over this period, the ILO estimates that total working hours worldwide should be down 10.5% from that of the quarter before the crisis. This equates to 305 million full-time jobs, which represents a clear deterioration from the previous estimate published two weeks ago of 195 million.

If the situation has worsened for all regions, estimates indicate that the Americas (-12.4%) and Europe and Central Asia (-11.8% for both regions) will experience the largest loss of working hours during this second quarter.

According to the ILO, the sectors most affected by the paralysis of the economy are accommodation and food services, industry, wholesale and retail trade, real estate and commercial activities.