CEMAC zone: recession could reach 6% according to BEAC

All the indicators are certainly not red. But most of the economic indicators in the six countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) are already found the Monetary Policy Committee (CPM) of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) at the end of the second annual session on June 24, 2020 in Yaoundé.

Analyzing the situation in Central Africa, it emerges that in the short and medium terms, the CEMAC zone is affected by the health crisis and the fall in the prices of the main export products. "

"In the first half of 2020, the revival of productive activities was slowed down in the sub-region by the disruption of supply circuits for imported products as well as by the restrictive measures adopted by the various governments to contain the effects of the pandemic. Although it is premature for the moment to fully grasp the impact of COVID-19 on national economies, it is already anticipated during this first semester a drop in production as well as a det…

Banks anticipate recession in Canada in 2020

The Royal Bank expects Canada to fall into recession later this year, with the economy suffering from the aftermath of COVID-19 as well as falling oil prices. The financial institution expects GDP growth of 0.8% in the first quarter. The economy should then contract over the next two quarters. On an annualized basis, the bank anticipates a drop in GDP of around 2.5% in the second quarter and 0.8% in the third quarter.
Banks anticipate recession in Canada in 2020

Its forecasts take into account the repercussions caused by the spread of the new coronavirus by the end of the first half. A recovery will be hampered by the depression in crude prices. In fact, Canada's oil and natural gas producers continued to cut their capital spending and investor payments in the wake of this week's plunge in oil prices.

Friday was the turn of ARC Resources, based in Calgary, to announce that it would cut its spending budget for 2020 from 500 million to 300 million at most, and that it would reduce its monthly dividend of 5 ¢ to 2 ¢. Late Thursday, Husky Energy announced that it would reduce capital spending this year by $ 900 million to about $ 2.4 billion, and said it would seek additional $ 100 million through capital measures. cost reductions.

The cuts come at a time when the coronavirus epidemic is eroding global demand for energy, and when a price war between major producers in Saudi Arabia and Russia threatens to flood the oil market with cheap barrels .

The economy, however, should recover in the last three months of the year, according to the Royale.

CIBC echoed Royale's comments in its own report, also arguing that Canada is probably on the brink of a recession. "We expect production to drop in the second and third quarters in the United States and Canada," she said.

Add to this the effects of the rail blockade. The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) released his estimate of the economic and financial impact of the disruption in February 2020 on Friday. According to the PBO, rail disruptions will cost the Canadian economy $ 275 million in 2020, or 0, 01% of GDP, the effect of these disturbances being especially felt in the first quarter.

"Almost all of the losses related to the interruption of activity in the rail sector should be recovered by May, but the economy will still be subject to modest costs due to passenger movements and canceled port activities "Said Yves Giroux.

In more detail, the blockade caused a drop in business revenues of 130 million and affected almost 800 jobs in 2020. In its calculations, the PBO took into account the direct repercussions of the disruptions on rail transport, port activity and urban transport. It also considered indirect impacts, including consequences for other industries, based on the links between these industries and the transportation sector. Finally, PBO's estimate includes the effects on other sectors of the economy.