CEMAC zone: recession could reach 6% according to BEAC

All the indicators are certainly not red. But most of the economic indicators in the six countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) are already found the Monetary Policy Committee (CPM) of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) at the end of the second annual session on June 24, 2020 in Yaoundé.

Analyzing the situation in Central Africa, it emerges that in the short and medium terms, the CEMAC zone is affected by the health crisis and the fall in the prices of the main export products. "

"In the first half of 2020, the revival of productive activities was slowed down in the sub-region by the disruption of supply circuits for imported products as well as by the restrictive measures adopted by the various governments to contain the effects of the pandemic. Although it is premature for the moment to fully grasp the impact of COVID-19 on national economies, it is already anticipated during this first semester a drop in production as well as a det…

Analysis: the stock market or life?

The protection of public health and economic development go hand in hand. But will the COVID-19 pandemic force us to choose one at the expense of the other? The President has again changed his mind on a major issue this week. After first denying the danger, and then declaring himself the grand chief of the armed forces responsible for fighting it, Donald Trump has turned around 180 degrees and now wonders if the remedy adopted by the governments against the COVID pandemic- 19 "is not worse than evil".

Analysis: the stock market or life?

Considering in particular the policies of containment of the population too damaging to the economy and contrary to the deep nature of the Americans, the confusing president now wishes to be done with all this in time for Easter ham.

If one can have doubts about the value of the reasons for this new position of the current tenant of the White House, it is important to emphasize that he is not the only one to worry about the consequences measures deployed to block the new coronavirus. Equivalent, as Quebec Premier François Legault says, "to pause" whole swathes of society, they will end up, if they are maintained too long, by plunging our economies not only into recession, but into depression, warned Nobel Prize winner Paul Romer in the New York Times on Monday. On this regime, and if we have to wait the 12 to 18 months planned to develop a vaccine, "most of us will still be alive, the economy will be dead," warned the economist, who advocates, in the longer term, an approach that would focus containment and care efforts on populations most at risk, such as the elderly or the sick.

It is a question of priorities, even of moral values, retort those who say they want to put health before money. "My mother is not disposable. We don't want to sacrifice 1% or 2% of New Yorkers, "state governor Andrew Cuomo said on Tuesday.

More than 40 years of neoliberal policies have made too many people forget that, for the economy to run, that people consume, that companies invest and that stock markets speculate, we need "essential public resources" ensured by State, at the forefront of which we could mention health, but also education and infrastructure, argued this week the Franco-Israeli sociologist Eva Illouz, in an article in the Nouvel Observateur entitled "The unbearable lightness of capitalism vis- to our health ”. By brutally questioning health security that was taken for granted, the COVID-19 pandemic may force an awareness on the part of businesses to help this essential work of the state, rather than to fight it.

It's not about putting corporate profits before people's lives, David Katz director of Yale University public health research center said in the New York Times last week. worried about the economic impact of the control measures currently used. If the economy collapses, the resulting explosion in unemployment, poverty and despair will also have terrible impacts on people's health.

In fact, the views of the two camps are not all that different. In both cases, the health of populations and the health of their economies are said to be intimately linked. If a pandemic hits a population, it is difficult to see how companies can hope to continue doing business while their employees and customers fall like flies. Conversely, if the economy on which collective wealth is based is "paused" for too long, the living conditions that determine the level of public health will deteriorate. It remains to be seen what is "too long".

In the meantime, said this week the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, to help our economies recover, "it is essential to give priority to controlling contagion and strengthening public health systems around the world whole. The economic consequences are significant and will get worse, but the sooner we stop this virus, the faster and stronger the recovery. "