CEMAC zone: recession could reach 6% according to BEAC

All the indicators are certainly not red. But most of the economic indicators in the six countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) are already found the Monetary Policy Committee (CPM) of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) at the end of the second annual session on June 24, 2020 in Yaoundé.

Analyzing the situation in Central Africa, it emerges that in the short and medium terms, the CEMAC zone is affected by the health crisis and the fall in the prices of the main export products. "

"In the first half of 2020, the revival of productive activities was slowed down in the sub-region by the disruption of supply circuits for imported products as well as by the restrictive measures adopted by the various governments to contain the effects of the pandemic. Although it is premature for the moment to fully grasp the impact of COVID-19 on national economies, it is already anticipated during this first semester a drop in production as well as a det…

SCPI: why the French have never invested so much in paper stone

The SCPI attracted 8.6 billion euros in 2019, much more than the previous record of 2017. A craze for paper stone largely due to the yields offered, up from last year. All the indicators are green for the civil companies of real estate placement (SCPI). In 2019, savers rushed into these products by investing 8.6 billion euros, 36% more than the collection recorded in the 2017 record (6.3 billion euros). In detail, the office SCPIs (+4.4 billion euros), diversified (which invest according to opportunities, whatever the asset, +2.3 billion) and specialized (which invest mainly in a sector , like the hotel industry, the Ehpad, +1.2 billion) are the ones that benefited the most from these investments. This is followed by retail (+0.58 billion) and residential (+0.13 billion) SCPIs. These data, communicated on Thursday, February 13 by Aspim (French Association of Real Estate Investment Companies) and IEIF (Institute of Real Estate and Real Estate Savings), highlight an ever-increasing interest in paper stone. As a reminder, the acquisition of shares in SCPI consists in investing in a company which acquires and manages a building stock (offices, shops, healthcare establishments, hotels, etc.) and pays rents in the form of dividends in return.
4.40% average yield : "2019 was a particularly dynamic year for the unlisted real estate market thanks to a buoyant context and solid fundamentals," said Aspim's general delegate Véronique Donnadieu in a press release. With a market value distribution rate (TDVM) of 4.40% in 2019, compared to 4.35% a year earlier, SCPIs offer a very attractive return. In addition, the average share price appreciated by 1.20% over the period, against 0.80% in 2018. Arguments all the more convincing since paper stone benefits fully from the comparison with investments with guaranteed capital, in particular the euro life insurance fund, whose remuneration should fall on average to 1.40% in 2019. “The SCPIs benefit from the psychological impact of the drop in the rate served on the guaranteed support of the life insurance, explains Paul Bourdois, co-founder of France SCPI. In addition, SCPIs present a balanced risk / return couple. The CAC 40, if it achieved + 26% in 2019, is much more volatile ”. High interest rates, weakened competition from other investments, risk aversion on the equity markets, risk otherwise controlled so far ... everything seems to "roll" for stone.

What returns for the future? Investors should not however be blinded by the average rate served by SCPIs according to the founder of Meilleure SCPI, Jonathan Dhiver. On the one hand because "the 2019 returns result in part from capital gains distributions", he explains. Rates were thus boosted by asset sales by SCPIs, while rents are paying less than in the past. However, these capital gains are not intended to be recurrent in most SCPIs, rents representing the main source of remuneration.

In addition, more liquidity could, according to Jonathan Dhiver, be synonymous with declining rental yields under the effect of increased competition for the most attractive properties and therefore an additional purchase cost for SCPIs. The decrease in the remuneration from rents could therefore continue. “The rise in average yield is“ too much ”good news, fears Jonathan Dhiver for whom we cannot hope for an increase (in yields, editor's note) for the next few years”. Paul Bourdois, however, nuances the hypothesis of an erosion of the remuneration paid. "The depth of the market is high: the commercial property market in Europe reaches 260 billion euros". There would therefore still be great opportunities to seize for SCPIs according to him.

Savers are therefore warned and have every reason to think before taking action, in particular by checking the occupancy rates of SCPIs. Above all, they must not forget that subscribing for SCPI shares does not provide any capital guarantee and think of diversifying their investments. "You must invest a maximum of 15% of your assets in this asset," says Jonathan Dhiver.